Making it to this stage of the competition is a significant step forward for the Indonesians, but it appears as though they are overmatched in this one.
Throughout the tournament, the Socceroos have feasted off their opponents' giveaways, and the Indonesians have been too inconsistent defensively for us to believe they can contain a well-balanced Aussie side.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Australia win with a probability of 62.99%. A draw had a probability of 20.7% and a win for Indonesia had a probability of 16.29%.
The most likely scoreline for an Australia win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.69%) and 2-1 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.82%), while for a Indonesia win it was 0-1 (4.86%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Australia would win this match.
