Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bahia win with a probability of 51.15%. A draw had a probability of 24.5% and a win for America Mineiro had a probability of 24.34%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bahia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.6%) and 2-0 (9.08%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.65%), while for an America Mineiro win it was 0-1 (7.07%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bahia would win this match.
1.08) 
-0.28) 
