Given that both sides head into Saturday's showdown in poor form, we can see Bahia and Cruzeiro playing out a low-scoring stalemate at the Itaipava Arena Fonte Nova.
Both Bahia and Cruzeiro's past five matches have produced fewer than three goals, while the hosts have drawn four of their previous five, so all the signs point towards another tight contest.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bahia win with a probability of 37.51%. A win for Cruzeiro had a probability of 34.87% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bahia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.02%) and 2-0 (6.83%). The likeliest Cruzeiro win was 0-1 (10.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.04%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
0.13) 
-0.03) 
