Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Botafogo win with a probability of 43.2%. A draw had a probability of 28.5% and a win for Ceara had a probability of 28.26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Botafogo win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.61%) and 2-1 (8.28%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.13%), while for a Ceara win it was 0-1 (10.42%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood.
-0.11) 
0.04) 
