Flamengo have averaged over two goals per game on the road this season, so should expect to score at least once at Nabizao. The Rio-based heavyweights are certainly approaching peak condition, so absence-hit Bragantino could see their winless run roll on.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flamengo win with a probability of 37.38%. A win for Bragantino had a probability of 35.98% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.2%) and 0-2 (6.48%). The likeliest Bragantino win was 1-0 (9.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.66%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood.
0.9) 
-1.41) 
