Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 50.35%. A draw had a probability of 26.6% and a win for Fortaleza had a probability of 23.01%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.15%) and 2-1 (9.03%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.41%), while for a Fortaleza win it was 0-1 (8.53%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood.
-0.63) 
0.75) 
