Augsburg cannot be taken lightly by a Bayer Leverkusen side who lost both home and away meetings with Die Fuggerstadter last season and are missing a number of key players for this weekend's contest.
However, Alonso still has plenty of quality at his disposal to call upon and the visitors should have few problems outscoring an Augsburg outfit that has failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 19 matches.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 60.29%. A draw had a probability of 21% and a win for Augsburg had a probability of 18.74%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.54%) and 0-1 (9.38%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.78%), while for an Augsburg win it was 2-1 (5.1%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.
-0.05) 
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