Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 65.55%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Shakhtar Donetsk had a probability of 11.43%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 18.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (15.32%) and 0-3 (8.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (10.69%), while for a Shakhtar Donetsk win it was 1-0 (5.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood.
0.04) 
-0.05) 
