Man City will fancy their chances of securing a first-leg advantage on Tuesday evening, but Sporting deserve a lot of respect for their performances this season. The Portuguese giants should be able to get their name on the scoresheet, but we are expecting the Citizens to claim the victory in Lisbon. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 46.57%. A win for Sporting Lisbon had a probability of 33.35% and a draw had a probability of 20.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 1-2 with a probability of 7.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (5.69%) and 2-3 (5.38%). The likeliest Sporting Lisbon win was 2-1 (6.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 2-2 (7.21%). The actual scoreline of 0-5 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.

Result
Sporting Lisbon	Draw	Manchester City
33.35%	20.08%	46.57%

Both teams to score 75.85%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

78.03%

21.97%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

59.15%

40.85%

Sporting Lisbon Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.9%

15.1%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

56.35%

43.65%

Manchester City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

89.35%

10.65%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

65.49%

34.5%

Score Analysis

Sporting Lisbon 33.35%

Manchester City 46.57%

Draw 20.08%

Sporting Lisbon	Draw	Manchester City
2-1 @ 6.44% 3-2 @ 4.54% 3-1 @ 4.06% 1-0 @ 3.04% 2-0 @ 2.87% 4-2 @ 2.15% 4-1 @ 1.92% 3-0 @ 1.81% 4-3 @ 1.6% Other @ 4.93% Total : 33.35%	2-2 @ 7.21% 1-1 @ 6.81% 3-3 @ 3.39% 0-0 @ 1.61% Other @ 1.07% Total : 20.08%	1-2 @ 7.63% 1-3 @ 5.69% 2-3 @ 5.38% 0-2 @ 4.03% 0-1 @ 3.6% 1-4 @ 3.19% 2-4 @ 3.01% 0-3 @ 3.01% 3-4 @ 1.9% 0-4 @ 1.69% 1-5 @ 1.43% 2-5 @ 1.35% Other @ 4.66% Total : 46.57%