SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 38.19%. A win for Atletico Madrid had a probability of 36.69% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.44%) and 0-2 (6.05%). The likeliest Atletico Madrid win was 2-1 (8.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.81%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Atletico Madrid | Draw | Real Madrid |
36.69% ( 0.28) | 25.12% ( 0.24) | 38.19% ( -0.52) |
| Both teams to score 57.32% ( -0.83) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.78% ( -1.08) | 46.21% ( 1.08) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.49% ( -1.03) | 68.51% ( 1.03) |
| Atletico Madrid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.31% ( -0.34) | 24.69% ( 0.34) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.77% ( -0.48) | 59.23% ( 0.48) |
| Real Madrid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.12% ( -0.75) | 23.88% ( 0.75) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.91% ( -1.09) | 58.08% ( 1.09) |
| Score Analysis |
| Atletico Madrid | Draw | Real Madrid |
| 2-1 @ 8.26% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 8.25% ( 0.29)2-0 @ 5.77% ( 0.15)3-1 @ 3.85% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 2.76% ( -0.08)3-0 @ 2.69% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 1.35% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 0.96% ( -0.04)4-0 @ 0.94% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.86% Total : 36.69% | 1-1 @ 11.81% ( 0.17) 2-2 @ 5.92% ( -0.11)0-0 @ 5.9% ( 0.27)3-3 @ 1.32% ( -0.07)Other @ 0.18% Total : 25.12% | 1-2 @ 8.46% ( -0.07) 0-1 @ 8.44% ( 0.2)0-2 @ 6.05% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 4.04% ( -0.12)0-3 @ 2.89% ( -0.06)2-3 @ 2.82% ( -0.12)1-4 @ 1.45% ( -0.08)0-4 @ 1.03% ( -0.05)2-4 @ 1.01% ( -0.07)Other @ 2.01% Total : 38.19% |
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