The last four competitive matches between these two teams at Estadio Sao Januario were decided by a goal or fewer, and we expect another nail-biter on Tuesday.
In the end, we are counting on Fortaleza's experience in pressure situations over the past few seasons to give them a slight edge in this decisive encounter.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vasco da Gama win with a probability of 47.35%. A win for Fortaleza had a probability of 27.48% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vasco da Gama win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.34%) and 2-0 (8.28%). The likeliest Fortaleza win was 0-1 (7.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.96%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
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