On paper, this should be a win for Nacional, particularly with home advantage in their favour. However, the pressure on their shoulders combined by the extra freedom for the visitors may lead to no more than a narrow victory for the hosts. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 54.28%. A draw had a probability of 25.9% and a win for Metropolitanos had a probability of 19.78%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.32%) and 2-1 (9.09%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.95%), while for a Metropolitanos win it was 0-1 (7.86%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Nacional in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Nacional.

Result
Nacional	Draw	Metropolitanos
54.28% ( 0)	25.93% ( -0)	19.78% ( -0.01)

Both teams to score 43.11% (

-0)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

41% (

58.99% (

-0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

20.53% (

79.46% (

-0)

Nacional Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.13%

21.86% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.9% (

55.1% (

-0.01)

Metropolitanos Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

55.18% (

-0.01)

44.82% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

19.21% (

-0)

80.79%

Score Analysis

Nacional 54.27%

Metropolitanos 19.78%

Draw 25.93%

Nacional	Draw	Metropolitanos
1-0 @ 14.89% 2-0 @ 11.32% 2-1 @ 9.09% 3-0 @ 5.74% ( 0) 3-1 @ 4.61% 4-0 @ 2.18% ( 0) 3-2 @ 1.85% 4-1 @ 1.75% Other @ 2.84% Total : 54.27%	1-1 @ 11.95% 0-0 @ 9.8% ( -0) 2-2 @ 3.65% Other @ 0.53% Total : 25.93%	0-1 @ 7.86% ( -0) 1-2 @ 4.8% ( -0) 0-2 @ 3.16% ( -0) 1-3 @ 1.28% ( -0) 2-3 @ 0.98% Other @ 1.7% Total : 19.78%