Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cuiaba win with a probability of 40.91%. A win for Melgar had a probability of 34.1% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cuiaba win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.73%) and 2-0 (6.53%). The likeliest Melgar win was 1-2 (7.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.74%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cuiaba would win this match.
