SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 9 | Willem II | 6 | 1 | 9 |
| 10 | MVV Maastricht | 6 | -3 | 8 |
| 11 | Jong PSV | 7 | -5 | 8 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 6 | VVV-Venlo | 6 | 0 | 12 |
| 7 | Jong Ajax | 7 | 5 | 11 |
| 8 | NAC Breda | 7 | 0 | 11 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jong Ajax win with a probability of 43.1%. A win for MVV Maastricht had a probability of 32.63% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jong Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.26%) and 0-2 (6.61%). The likeliest MVV Maastricht win was 2-1 (7.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.26%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| MVV Maastricht | Draw | Jong Ajax |
32.63% ( 0.04) | 24.28% ( 0.04) | 43.1% ( -0.08) |
| Both teams to score 59.41% ( -0.12) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.89% ( -0.15) | 43.11% ( 0.16) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.49% ( -0.16) | 65.51% ( 0.16) |
| MVV Maastricht Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.43% ( -0.05) | 25.57% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.56% ( -0.07) | 60.44% ( 0.07) |
| Jong Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.83% ( -0.1) | 20.17% ( 0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.54% ( -0.16) | 52.46% ( 0.16) |
| Score Analysis |
| MVV Maastricht | Draw | Jong Ajax |
| 2-1 @ 7.68% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 7.03% ( 0.04)2-0 @ 4.8% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 3.49% ( -0)3-2 @ 2.79% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 2.18% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.19% ( -0)4-2 @ 0.95% ( -0)Other @ 2.51% Total : 32.63% | 1-1 @ 11.26% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 6.15% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 5.16% ( 0.04)3-3 @ 1.49% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.22% Total : 24.28% | 1-2 @ 9.01% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 8.26% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 6.61% ( 0)1-3 @ 4.81% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 3.53% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 3.28% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 1.93% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 1.41% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 1.31% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.95% Total : 43.1% |
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