This is a difficult match to call, as both managers will make a number of changes. Bolton have certainly enjoyed the stronger start to the campaign, but we believe that Boro's superior quality will allow them to progress to the third round of the competition.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bolton Wanderers win with a probability of 37.89%. A win for Middlesbrough had a probability of 37.52% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bolton Wanderers win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.8%) and 2-0 (5.75%). The likeliest Middlesbrough win was 1-2 (8.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.43%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Middlesbrough would win this match.
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