SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luton Town win with a probability of 45.1%. A win for Exeter City had a probability of 30.45% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Luton Town win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.93%) and 0-2 (7.19%). The likeliest Exeter City win was 2-1 (7.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.44%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Exeter City | Draw | Luton Town |
30.45% ( 0.16) | 24.45% ( 0.05) | 45.1% ( -0.21) |
| Both teams to score 57.8% ( -0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.21% ( -0.15) | 44.78% ( 0.14) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.85% ( -0.15) | 67.14% ( 0.14) |
| Exeter City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.23% ( 0.03) | 27.76% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.65% ( 0.04) | 63.34% ( -0.04) |
| Luton Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.02% ( -0.15) | 19.98% ( 0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.84% ( -0.24) | 52.16% ( 0.24) |
| Score Analysis |
| Exeter City | Draw | Luton Town |
| 2-1 @ 7.34% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 7.11% ( 0.05)2-0 @ 4.55% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 3.13% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.52% 3-0 @ 1.95% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 1% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.85% Total : 30.45% | 1-1 @ 11.44% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 5.91% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 5.55% ( 0.03)3-3 @ 1.35% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.44% | 1-2 @ 9.22% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 8.93% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 7.19% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 4.95% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 3.86% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 3.17% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 1.99% ( -0.02)0-4 @ 1.56% ( -0.02)2-4 @ 1.28% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.95% Total : 45.1% |
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