Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lillestrom win with a probability of 44.96%. A win for Sarpsborg 08 had a probability of 31.33% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lillestrom win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.9%) and 2-0 (6.67%). The likeliest Sarpsborg 08 win was 1-2 (7.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.85%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood.
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