Go Ahead Eagles have hit a poor patch of form at the wrong time in the season, and turning that around in a game of this magnitude will be tough. AZ Alkmaar are looking to earn a third-place finish and given their recent strong form there is a good chance they will go one step closer this weekend. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 43.94%. A win for Go Ahead Eagles had a probability of 32.95% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.

The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.9%) and 0-2 (6.02%). The likeliest Go Ahead Eagles win was 2-1 (7.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.25%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.

Result
Go Ahead Eagles	Draw	AZ Alkmaar
32.95% ( 0.18)	23.11% ( 0.06)	43.94% ( -0.23)

Both teams to score 63.84% (

-0.14)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

62.63% (

-0.22)

37.37% (

0.22)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

40.41% (

-0.23)

59.59% (

0.23)

Go Ahead Eagles Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.36% (

-0)

22.64% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.73% (

-0.01)

56.27% (

0.01)

AZ Alkmaar Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.53% (

-0.18)

17.47% (

0.18)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

52.04% (

-0.32)

47.96% (

0.31)

Score Analysis

Go Ahead Eagles 32.95%

AZ Alkmaar 43.94%

Draw 23.1%

Go Ahead Eagles	Draw	AZ Alkmaar
2-1 @ 7.61% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 5.88% ( 0.06) 2-0 @ 4.37% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 3.77% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 3.29% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 2.16% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 1.4% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.22% ( -0) Other @ 3.26% Total : 32.95%	1-1 @ 10.25% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 6.64% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 3.96% ( 0.04) 3-3 @ 1.91% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.34% Total : 23.1%	1-2 @ 8.94% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 6.9% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 6.02% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 5.2% ( -0.04) 2-3 @ 3.86% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 3.5% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 2.27% ( -0.03) 2-4 @ 1.68% ( -0.02) 0-4 @ 1.53% ( -0.02) Other @ 4.04% Total : 43.94%