SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heerenveen win with a probability of 58.71%. A draw had a probability of 21.9% and a win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 19.41%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heerenveen win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.94%) and 2-0 (9.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.32%), while for a SBV Excelsior win it was 0-1 (5.36%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Heerenveen | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
58.71% ( 1.55) | 21.89% ( -0.63) | 19.41% ( -0.92) |
| Both teams to score 54.34% ( 0.55) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.25% ( 1.47) | 43.75% ( -1.46) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.86% ( 1.42) | 66.14% ( -1.42) |
| Heerenveen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.42% ( 1) | 14.58% ( -1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.35% ( 1.9) | 42.65% ( -1.89) |
| SBV Excelsior Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.61% ( -0.11) | 36.39% ( 0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.83% ( -0.11) | 73.17% ( 0.11) |
| Score Analysis |
| Heerenveen | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
| 1-0 @ 10.21% ( -0.29) 2-1 @ 9.94% ( 0.04)2-0 @ 9.83% ( 0.07)3-1 @ 6.38% ( 0.24)3-0 @ 6.31% ( 0.26)3-2 @ 3.23% ( 0.11)4-1 @ 3.07% ( 0.22)4-0 @ 3.04% ( 0.23)4-2 @ 1.55% ( 0.11)5-1 @ 1.18% ( 0.12)5-0 @ 1.17% ( 0.12)Other @ 2.78% Total : 58.7% | 1-1 @ 10.32% ( -0.33) 0-0 @ 5.3% ( -0.35)2-2 @ 5.03% ( 0)3-3 @ 1.09% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.14% Total : 21.88% | 0-1 @ 5.36% ( -0.37) 1-2 @ 5.22% ( -0.18)0-2 @ 2.71% ( -0.19)1-3 @ 1.76% ( -0.07)2-3 @ 1.69% ( -0)0-3 @ 0.91% ( -0.07)Other @ 1.75% Total : 19.41% |
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