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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 74.94%. A draw had a probability of 14.4% and a win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 10.65%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.72%) and 1-3 (8.19%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.2%), while for a SBV Excelsior win it was 2-1 (3.11%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
| Result | ||
| SBV Excelsior | Draw | Ajax |
10.65% ( -0.44) | 14.41% ( -0.17) | 74.94% ( 0.61) |
| Both teams to score 59.47% ( -1.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 73.38% ( -0.5) | 26.62% ( 0.51) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 52.99% ( -0.64) | 47.01% ( 0.65) |
| SBV Excelsior Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.26% ( -1.11) | 36.74% ( 1.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.47% ( -1.13) | 73.53% ( 1.13) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 94.01% ( -0) | 5.99% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 77.15% ( -0.01) | 22.85% ( 0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| SBV Excelsior | Draw | Ajax |
| 2-1 @ 3.11% ( -0.09) 1-0 @ 2.2% ( 0)3-2 @ 1.46% ( -0.09)2-0 @ 1.1% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 1.04% ( -0.06)Other @ 1.74% Total : 10.65% | 1-1 @ 6.2% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 4.37% ( -0.13)0-0 @ 2.2% ( 0.07)3-3 @ 1.37% ( -0.09)Other @ 0.27% Total : 14.41% | 1-2 @ 8.73% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 8.72% ( 0.27)1-3 @ 8.19% ( 0)0-3 @ 8.18% ( 0.25)0-1 @ 6.19% ( 0.19)1-4 @ 5.77% ( 0)0-4 @ 5.76% ( 0.17)2-3 @ 4.1% ( -0.12)1-5 @ 3.25% ( -0)0-5 @ 3.24% ( 0.1)2-4 @ 2.89% ( -0.09)2-5 @ 1.63% ( -0.05)1-6 @ 1.52% ( -0)0-6 @ 1.52% ( 0.04)3-4 @ 0.96% ( -0.06)Other @ 4.28% Total : 74.94% |
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