Ajax's dominance in this fixture means that it is hard to envisage any other result than a victory for them. We are backing the defending champions to cruise to all three points in what should be a largely one-sided affair. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 75.91%. A draw had a probability of 15.1% and a win for Sparta Rotterdam had a probability of 9.02%.

The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (10.04%) and 0-1 (9.31%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.11%), while for a Sparta Rotterdam win it was 1-0 (2.8%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.

Result
Sparta Rotterdam	Draw	Ajax
9.02% ( 0.08)	15.07% ( 0.16)	75.91% ( -0.24)

Both teams to score 49.22% (

-0.26)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

64.22% (

-0.51)

35.78% (

0.51)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

42.15% (

-0.56)

57.85% (

0.57)

Sparta Rotterdam Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

53.42% (

-0.19)

46.58% (

0.19)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

17.83% (

-0.14)

82.17% (

0.15)

Ajax Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

92.14% (

-0.16)

7.85% (

0.17)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

72.17% (

-0.43)

27.83% (

0.43)

Score Analysis

Sparta Rotterdam 9.02%

Ajax 75.9%

Draw 15.07%

Sparta Rotterdam	Draw	Ajax
1-0 @ 2.8% ( 0.06) 2-1 @ 2.72% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 1.07% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.44% Total : 9.02%	1-1 @ 7.11% ( 0.08) 0-0 @ 3.66% ( 0.09) 2-2 @ 3.46% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.84% Total : 15.07%	0-2 @ 11.83% ( 0.1) 0-3 @ 10.04% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 9.31% ( 0.16) 1-2 @ 9.05% ( 0.03) 1-3 @ 7.67% ( -0.04) 0-4 @ 6.39% ( -0.05) 1-4 @ 4.88% ( -0.07) 0-5 @ 3.25% ( -0.05) 2-3 @ 2.93% ( -0.03) 1-5 @ 2.48% ( -0.05) 2-4 @ 1.86% ( -0.03) 0-6 @ 1.38% ( -0.04) 1-6 @ 1.05% ( -0.03) 2-5 @ 0.95% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.83% Total : 75.9%