Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ararat-Armenia win with a probability of 37.94%. A win for Aris Thessaloniki had a probability of 34.07% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ararat-Armenia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.98%) and 2-0 (7.04%). The likeliest Aris Thessaloniki win was 0-1 (10.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.15%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.2% likelihood.
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