Holding a slender lead, it will be difficult for Dundee United not to adopt a defensive strategy in order to get over the line. However, that is something which will likely not work in their favour, and we expect to see AZ run out comfortable victors on the night and in the tie.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 57.3%. A draw had a probability of 26.1% and a win for Dundee United had a probability of 16.62%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.83%) and 2-1 (8.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.47%), while for a Dundee United win it was 0-1 (7.64%). The actual scoreline of 7-0 was predicted with a 0% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
-0.17) 
0.07) 
