SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 4 | Osasuna | 5 | 4 | 12 |
| 5 | Villarreal | 5 | 8 | 10 |
| 6 | Athletic Bilbao | 5 | 7 | 10 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 46.66%. A win for Hapoel Be'er Sheva had a probability of 28.33% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.32%) and 0-2 (7.98%). The likeliest Hapoel Be'er Sheva win was 1-0 (7.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.85%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Villarreal would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Hapoel Be'er Sheva | Draw | Villarreal |
28.33% ( 0.02) | 25.01% ( -0.02) | 46.66% ( -0) |
| Both teams to score 54.58% ( 0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.59% ( 0.1) | 48.41% ( -0.11) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.46% ( 0.09) | 70.54% ( -0.1) |
| Hapoel Be'er Sheva Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.9% ( 0.07) | 31.1% ( -0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.58% ( 0.08) | 67.42% ( -0.08) |
| Villarreal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.22% ( 0.04) | 20.78% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.57% ( 0.06) | 53.43% ( -0.07) |
| Score Analysis |
| Hapoel Be'er Sheva | Draw | Villarreal |
| 1-0 @ 7.55% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 6.93% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 4.41% ( -0)3-1 @ 2.7% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.12% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 1.72% ( 0)Other @ 2.91% Total : 28.33% | 1-1 @ 11.85% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 6.46% ( -0.03)2-2 @ 5.44% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.11% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.14% Total : 25% | 0-1 @ 10.15% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 9.32% ( 0)0-2 @ 7.98% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 4.88% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 4.18% ( -0)2-3 @ 2.85% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 1.92% ( 0)0-4 @ 1.64% ( 0)2-4 @ 1.12% ( 0)Other @ 2.64% Total : 46.66% |
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