SM
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | England | 5 | 14 | 13 |
| 2 | Italy | 5 | 6 | 10 |
| 3 | Ukraine | 6 | 1 | 10 |
| 4 | North Macedonia | 6 | -7 | 7 |
| 5 | Malta | 6 | -14 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ukraine win with a probability of 59.6%. A draw had a probability of 22.3% and a win for Malta had a probability of 18.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ukraine win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.77%) and 1-2 (9.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.6%), while for a Malta win it was 1-0 (5.7%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ukraine would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Malta | Draw | Ukraine |
18.1% ( 0.23) | 22.3% ( 0.29) | 59.6% ( -0.51) |
| Both teams to score 50.65% ( -0.46) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.5% ( -0.85) | 47.5% ( 0.85) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.29% ( -0.79) | 69.71% ( 0.79) |
| Malta Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.97% ( -0.23) | 40.02% ( 0.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.33% ( -0.21) | 76.67% ( 0.21) |
| Ukraine Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.45% ( -0.45) | 15.55% ( 0.46) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 55.51% ( -0.85) | 44.49% ( 0.85) |
| Score Analysis |
| Malta | Draw | Ukraine |
| 1-0 @ 5.7% ( 0.17) 2-1 @ 4.86% ( 0.04)2-0 @ 2.61% ( 0.06)3-1 @ 1.48% ( 0)3-2 @ 1.38% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.07% Total : 18.1% | 1-1 @ 10.6% ( 0.14) 0-0 @ 6.22% ( 0.22)2-2 @ 4.52% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.95% Total : 22.3% | 0-1 @ 11.58% ( 0.23) 0-2 @ 10.77% ( 0.04)1-2 @ 9.87% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 6.69% ( -0.08)1-3 @ 6.12% ( -0.11)0-4 @ 3.11% ( -0.09)1-4 @ 2.85% ( -0.1)2-3 @ 2.8% ( -0.07)2-4 @ 1.3% ( -0.05)0-5 @ 1.16% ( -0.05)1-5 @ 1.06% ( -0.05)Other @ 2.27% Total : 59.59% |
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