There is not an awful lot between these two sides in terms of quality, and we are expecting a close match on Saturday afternoon. Barnsley certainly have the quality to triumph, but we just a have a feeling that Bolton will progress to the second round of the competition courtesy of a narrow success.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bolton Wanderers win with a probability of 51.29%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Barnsley had a probability of 24.34%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bolton Wanderers win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.62%) and 2-0 (9.02%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.57%), while for a Barnsley win it was 0-1 (6.96%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood.
-0.19) 
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