SM
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Mexico | 1 | 4 | 3 |
| 2 | Haiti | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Qatar | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 4 | Honduras | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mexico win with a probability of 55.13%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for Haiti had a probability of 19.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mexico win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.35%) and 1-2 (9.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.8%), while for a Haiti win it was 1-0 (7.55%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Mexico would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Haiti | Draw | Mexico |
19.46% ( 0.37) | 25.42% ( 0.11) | 55.13% ( -0.48) |
| Both teams to score 43.99% ( 0.25) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.41% ( 0.03) | 57.59% ( -0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.64% ( 0.03) | 78.36% ( -0.02) |
| Haiti Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 55.64% ( 0.45) | 44.36% ( -0.44) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 19.58% ( 0.36) | 80.42% ( -0.36) |
| Mexico Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.06% ( -0.18) | 20.94% ( 0.18) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.33% ( -0.28) | 53.67% ( 0.29) |
| Score Analysis |
| Haiti | Draw | Mexico |
| 1-0 @ 7.55% ( 0.08) 2-1 @ 4.8% ( 0.09)2-0 @ 3.07% ( 0.07)3-1 @ 1.3% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 1.02% ( 0.03)Other @ 1.73% Total : 19.46% | 1-1 @ 11.8% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 9.29% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 3.75% ( 0.05)Other @ 0.57% Total : 25.41% | 0-1 @ 14.52% ( -0.1) 0-2 @ 11.35% ( -0.14)1-2 @ 9.23% 0-3 @ 5.92% ( -0.11)1-3 @ 4.81% ( -0.03)0-4 @ 2.31% ( -0.06)2-3 @ 1.96% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 1.88% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.14% Total : 55.12% |
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