Cyrpus play much better on familiar territory and will give themselves every chance of recording a morale-boosting victory on Wednesday. However, Bulgaria are a team who are on an upward curve, leading us to predict a competitive share of the spoils.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cyprus win with a probability of 41.85%. A win for Bulgaria had a probability of 30.41% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cyprus win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.43%) and 2-0 (7.96%). The likeliest Bulgaria win was 0-1 (10.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.02%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood.
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