SM
| Current League A Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Panama | 4 | 7 | 10 |
| 2 | Trinidad and Tobago | 4 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | Martinique | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 4 | Guatemala | 4 | -2 | 4 |
| 5 | Curacao | 4 | -1 | 3 |
| 6 | El Salvador | 4 | -4 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ecuador win with a probability of 57.27%. A draw had a probability of 25.5% and a win for Guatemala had a probability of 17.19%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ecuador win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.45%) and 2-1 (8.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.52%), while for a Guatemala win it was 0-1 (7.45%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ecuador would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Ecuador | Draw | Guatemala |
57.27% ( -0.24) | 25.53% ( 0.21) | 17.19% ( 0.02) |
| Both teams to score 40.23% ( -0.47) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.41% ( -0.65) | 60.58% ( 0.65) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.31% ( -0.5) | 80.68% ( 0.5) |
| Ecuador Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.72% ( -0.36) | 21.28% ( 0.36) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.79% ( -0.56) | 54.21% ( 0.56) |
| Guatemala Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 51.11% ( -0.36) | 48.88% ( 0.36) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 16.12% ( -0.26) | 83.87% ( 0.26) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ecuador | Draw | Guatemala |
| 1-0 @ 16.09% ( 0.21) 2-0 @ 12.45% ( 0.03)2-1 @ 8.91% ( -0.07)3-0 @ 6.42% ( -0.05)3-1 @ 4.6% ( -0.09)4-0 @ 2.49% ( -0.05)4-1 @ 1.78% ( -0.05)3-2 @ 1.65% ( -0.05)Other @ 2.87% Total : 57.26% | 1-1 @ 11.52% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 10.4% ( 0.25)2-2 @ 3.19% ( -0.06)Other @ 0.42% Total : 25.53% | 0-1 @ 7.45% ( 0.11) 1-2 @ 4.12% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 2.66% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 0.98% ( -0.02)Other @ 1.98% Total : 17.19% |
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