SM
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Argentina | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 2 | Poland | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Mexico | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 4 | Saudi Arabia | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| Current Group E Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Tunisia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Mali | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | South Africa | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Namibia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mali win with a probability of 54.64%. A draw had a probability of 26.1% and a win for Saudi Arabia had a probability of 19.21%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mali win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.61%) and 1-2 (8.96%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.92%), while for a Saudi Arabia win it was 1-0 (7.93%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Mali would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Saudi Arabia | Draw | Mali |
19.21% ( 0.91) | 26.15% ( 0.03) | 54.64% ( -0.94) |
| Both teams to score 41.81% ( 1.22) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.72% ( 0.86) | 60.27% ( -0.86) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.55% ( 0.65) | 80.45% ( -0.65) |
| Saudi Arabia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 53.77% ( 1.59) | 46.22% ( -1.59) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 18.1% ( 1.2) | 81.89% ( -1.2) |
| Mali Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.75% ( -0.03) | 22.24% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.32% ( -0.05) | 55.68% ( 0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Saudi Arabia | Draw | Mali |
| 1-0 @ 7.93% ( 0.1) 2-1 @ 4.6% ( 0.25)2-0 @ 3.06% ( 0.17)3-1 @ 1.18% ( 0.12)Other @ 2.43% Total : 19.21% | 1-1 @ 11.92% ( 0.14) 0-0 @ 10.28% ( -0.33)2-2 @ 3.46% ( 0.19)Other @ 0.48% Total : 26.14% | 0-1 @ 15.45% ( -0.52) 0-2 @ 11.61% ( -0.41)1-2 @ 8.96% ( 0.09)0-3 @ 5.82% ( -0.21)1-3 @ 4.49% ( 0.04)0-4 @ 2.19% ( -0.08)2-3 @ 1.73% ( 0.09)1-4 @ 1.69% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.69% Total : 54.63% |
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