SM
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | USA | 3 | 12 | 7 |
| 2 | Jamaica | 3 | 8 | 7 |
| 3 | Trinidad and Tobago | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 4 | Saint Kitts and Nevis | 3 | -14 | 0 |
| Current Group H Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Slovenia | 10 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Denmark | 10 | 9 | 22 |
| 3 | Finland | 10 | 8 | 18 |
| 4 | Kazakhstan | 10 | 4 | 18 |
| 5 | Northern Ireland | 10 | -4 | 9 |
| 6 | San Marino | 10 | -28 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a USA win with a probability of 67.33%. A draw had a probability of 19.9% and a win for Slovenia had a probability of 12.77%.
The most likely scoreline for a USA win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.58%) and 2-1 (9.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.44%), while for a Slovenia win it was 0-1 (4.64%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| USA | Draw | Slovenia |
67.33% ( -0.55) | 19.9% ( 0.34) | 12.77% ( 0.22) |
| Both teams to score 45.85% ( -0.41) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.62% ( -0.91) | 47.38% ( 0.91) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.4% ( -0.85) | 69.6% ( 0.85) |
| USA Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.89% ( -0.43) | 13.11% ( 0.43) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 60.25% ( -0.89) | 39.75% ( 0.89) |
| Slovenia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 52.76% ( -0.21) | 47.23% ( 0.21) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 17.34% ( -0.16) | 82.66% ( 0.16) |
| Score Analysis |
| USA | Draw | Slovenia |
| 2-0 @ 12.78% ( 0.07) 1-0 @ 12.58% ( 0.27)2-1 @ 9.59% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 8.66% ( -0.1)3-1 @ 6.49% ( -0.11)4-0 @ 4.4% ( -0.12)4-1 @ 3.3% ( -0.11)3-2 @ 2.44% ( -0.06)5-0 @ 1.79% ( -0.08)5-1 @ 1.34% ( -0.07)4-2 @ 1.24% ( -0.05)Other @ 2.74% Total : 67.33% | 1-1 @ 9.44% ( 0.15) 0-0 @ 6.19% ( 0.23)2-2 @ 3.6% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.67% Total : 19.9% | 0-1 @ 4.64% ( 0.15) 1-2 @ 3.54% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 1.74% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.85% Total : 12.77% |
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