Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Uzbekistan win with a probability of 48.74%. A win for Kazakhstan had a probability of 27.17% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Uzbekistan win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.49%) and 2-0 (7.97%). The likeliest Kazakhstan win was 1-2 (6.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.32%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Uzbekistan would win this match.
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0.01) 
