On paper, Espanyol are the stronger side here, but the situation is becoming increasingly urgent for Elche, who need a victory, and quickly, if they are to avoid being left behind.
After a promising attacking performance at Mestalla, we are backing the bottom side to grind out a result here.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Espanyol win with a probability of 61.36%. A draw had a probability of 22.8% and a win for Elche had a probability of 15.79%.
The most likely scoreline for a Espanyol win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.38%) and 2-1 (9.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.72%), while for a Elche win it was 0-1 (6.04%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
0.37) 
-0.12) 
