Despite Osasuna having a strong home record this season, they have lost three times in front of their own fans, while Atletico have been solid on their travels, picking up 17 points from nine matches. It would not be a shock to see a home win or a draw, but we just have a feeling that the visitors could sneak a huge win.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 51.18%. A draw had a probability of 25.5% and a win for Osasuna had a probability of 23.35%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.77%) and 1-2 (9.39%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.06%), while for a Osasuna win it was 1-0 (7.76%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Atletico Madrid in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Atletico Madrid.
-0.55) 
0.64) 
