Sevilla have been inconsistent at home this season, picking up just 14 points from 13 matches, while Real Sociedad have the fourth-best away record in Spain's top flight this term.
We came close to siding with Sevilla in this one, but Real Sociedad will be determined to bounce back from their Copa del Rey disappointment, and we can see the points being shared on Saturday.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Sociedad win with a probability of 40.84%. A win for Sevilla had a probability of 31.86% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Sociedad win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.45%) and 0-2 (7.53%). The likeliest Sevilla win was 1-0 (9.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.91%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood.
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