SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Dundalk win with a probability of 38.03%. A win for Derry City had a probability of 34.89% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Dundalk win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.2%) and 2-0 (6.78%). The likeliest Derry City win was 0-1 (10.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.85%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Dundalk | Draw | Derry City |
38.03% ( -0.07) | 27.08% ( -0.02) | 34.89% ( 0.09) |
| Both teams to score 50.58% ( 0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.25% ( 0.1) | 54.75% ( -0.1) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.93% ( 0.08) | 76.07% ( -0.08) |
| Dundalk Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.07% ( 0) | 27.93% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.45% ( 0.01) | 63.55% ( -0.01) |
| Derry City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.18% ( 0.11) | 29.82% ( -0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.09% ( 0.13) | 65.9% ( -0.13) |
| Score Analysis |
| Dundalk | Draw | Derry City |
| 1-0 @ 10.62% ( -0.04) 2-1 @ 8.2% ( -0)2-0 @ 6.78% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 3.49% ( -0)3-0 @ 2.88% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 2.11% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.11% 4-0 @ 0.92% ( -0)Other @ 1.92% Total : 38.03% | 1-1 @ 12.85% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 8.33% ( -0.03)2-2 @ 4.96% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.94% Total : 27.08% | 0-1 @ 10.07% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 7.78% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 6.1% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 3.14% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 2.46% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 2% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 0.95% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.4% Total : 34.89% |
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