Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barnsley win with a probability of 36.76%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 35.65% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barnsley win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.93%) and 2-0 (6.65%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (10.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.04%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Barnsley would win this match.
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