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League One | Gameweek 23
Dec 23, 2023 at 3pm UK
Brunton Park
CT

Carlisle
0 - 1
Cheltenham


Lavelle (38'), Moxon (67')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Sercombe (27')
Bonds (40'), Freestone (82'), Long (90+5')

Form, Standings, Stats

We said: Carlisle United 1-1 Cheltenham Town

With both teams struggling to score goals and sitting within the relegation places, this could be a scrappy contest. A victory for either team would be a huge boost to their survival hopes. However, we can envisage them having to share the spoils after a low-scoring draw. Both sides conceded injury-time goals to drop points last time out and may be content with avoiding defeat. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 48.66%. A win for Cheltenham Town had a probability of 25.82% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.34%) and 2-0 (8.91%). The likeliest Cheltenham Town win was 0-1 (7.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.13%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood.

Result
Carlisle UnitedDrawCheltenham Town
48.66% (-0.642 -0.64) 25.52% (0.235 0.23) 25.82% (0.401 0.4)
Both teams to score 51.03% (-0.348 -0.35)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
47.86% (-0.634 -0.63)52.13% (0.629 0.63)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
26.15% (-0.548 -0.55)73.85% (0.54199999999999 0.54)
Carlisle United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.56% (-0.536 -0.54)21.44% (0.531 0.53)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
45.54% (-0.828 -0.83)54.45% (0.822 0.82)
Cheltenham Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.95% (-0.0010000000000048 -0)35.04% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.21% (-0.0020000000000024 -0)71.79% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Score Analysis
    Carlisle United 48.65%
    Cheltenham Town 25.82%
    Draw 25.52%
Carlisle UnitedDrawCheltenham Town
1-0 @ 11.56% (0.1 0.1)
2-1 @ 9.34% (-0.068000000000001 -0.07)
2-0 @ 8.91% (-0.066000000000001 -0.07)
3-1 @ 4.8% (-0.114 -0.11)
3-0 @ 4.57% (-0.109 -0.11)
3-2 @ 2.51% (-0.06 -0.06)
4-1 @ 1.85% (-0.075 -0.08)
4-0 @ 1.76% (-0.071 -0.07)
4-2 @ 0.97% (-0.039 -0.04)
Other @ 2.38%
Total : 48.65%
1-1 @ 12.13% (0.11 0.11)
0-0 @ 7.51% (0.186 0.19)
2-2 @ 4.9% (-0.035 -0.04)
Other @ 0.97%
Total : 25.52%
0-1 @ 7.88% (0.196 0.2)
1-2 @ 6.36% (0.056 0.06)
0-2 @ 4.13% (0.102 0.1)
1-3 @ 2.22% (0.02 0.02)
2-3 @ 1.71% (-0.012 -0.01)
0-3 @ 1.44% (0.036 0.04)
Other @ 2.07%
Total : 25.82%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Carlisle 2-2 Northampton
Saturday, December 16 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Blackpool 3-0 Carlisle
Saturday, December 9 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Reading 5-1 Carlisle
Tuesday, November 28 at 8pm in League One
Last Game: Carlisle 1-1 Charlton
Saturday, November 25 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Carlisle 2-0 Harrogate
Tuesday, November 14 at 7pm in EFL Trophy
Last Game: Carlisle 0-1 Bristol Rovers
Saturday, November 11 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Cheltenham 1-2 Leyton Orient
Saturday, December 16 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Bristol Rovers 1-1 Cheltenham
Saturday, December 9 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Charlton 2-1 Cheltenham
Tuesday, November 28 at 7.45pm in League One
Last Game: Cheltenham 2-0 Oxford Utd
Saturday, November 25 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Cheltenham 1-1 Wigan
Saturday, November 11 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Cheltenham 0-4 West Ham U21s
Tuesday, November 7 at 7.30pm in EFL Trophy


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