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League One | Gameweek 16
Oct 28, 2023 at 3pm UK
St James Park
LC

Exeter
1 - 1
Lincoln

Trevitt (81')
Scott (53'), Hartridge (77'), Harper (78'), Sinisalo (89')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Smith (20')
Hamilton (39'), Adelakun (43'), Erhahon (78'), O'Connor (89')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Derby 2-0 Exeter
Tuesday, October 24 at 7.45pm in League One
Last Game: Lincoln 3-1 Charlton
Tuesday, October 24 at 7.45pm in League One

We said: Exeter City 1-1 Lincoln City

Exeter are a lot better than they have shown of late, and we are backing their run of defeats to come to an end this weekend. Lincoln will be seeking a third straight win under their interim head coach, but Exeter should be good enough to claim a share of the spoils on Saturday afternoon. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lincoln City win with a probability of 39.7%. A win for Exeter City had a probability of 33.54% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lincoln City win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.45%) and 0-2 (7.05%). The likeliest Exeter City win was 1-0 (9.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.71%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.

Result
Exeter CityDrawLincoln City
33.54% (0.050000000000004 0.05) 26.76% (0.011000000000003 0.01) 39.7% (-0.059999999999995 -0.06)
Both teams to score 51.36% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
46.34% (-0.039999999999999 -0.04)53.66% (0.044000000000004 0.04)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
24.84% (-0.033999999999999 -0.03)75.15% (0.036000000000001 0.04)
Exeter City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.85% (0.010000000000005 0.01)30.15% (-0.0079999999999991 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.7% (0.014000000000003 0.01)66.3% (-0.012 -0.01)
Lincoln City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.52% (-0.051999999999992 -0.05)26.47% (0.054000000000002 0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
38.34% (-0.069999999999993 -0.07)61.66% (0.072000000000003 0.07)
Score Analysis
    Exeter City 33.54%
    Lincoln City 39.69%
    Draw 26.75%
Exeter CityDrawLincoln City
1-0 @ 9.57% (0.018000000000001 0.02)
2-1 @ 7.63% (0.0049999999999999 0)
2-0 @ 5.74% (0.013 0.01)
3-1 @ 3.05% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-0 @ 2.29% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
3-2 @ 2.03% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-1 @ 0.91% (0.002 0)
Other @ 2.33%
Total : 33.54%
1-1 @ 12.71%
0-0 @ 7.98% (0.014 0.01)
2-2 @ 5.07% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
Other @ 0.99%
Total : 26.75%
0-1 @ 10.6%
1-2 @ 8.45% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
0-2 @ 7.05% (-0.0089999999999995 -0.01)
1-3 @ 3.74% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-3 @ 3.12% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
2-3 @ 2.25% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
1-4 @ 1.24% (-0.0050000000000001 -0.01)
0-4 @ 1.04% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 2.2%
Total : 39.69%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Derby 2-0 Exeter
Tuesday, October 24 at 7.45pm in League One
Last Game: Exeter 0-2 Wigan
Saturday, October 21 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Exeter 0-5 Arsenal U21s
Tuesday, October 10 at 7.15pm in EFL Trophy
Last Game: Exeter 0-1 Barnsley
Saturday, October 7 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Charlton 4-1 Exeter
Tuesday, October 3 at 7.45pm in League One
Last Game: Exeter 0-2 Northampton
Saturday, September 30 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Lincoln 3-1 Charlton
Tuesday, October 24 at 7.45pm in League One
Last Game: Fleetwood 0-1 Lincoln
Saturday, October 21 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Lincoln 0-1 Burton Albion
Saturday, October 14 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Lincoln 2-0 Wolves U21s
Tuesday, October 10 at 7pm in EFL Trophy
Last Game: Peterborough 2-0 Lincoln
Saturday, October 7 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: Lincoln 2-0 Cheltenham
Saturday, September 30 at 3pm in League One


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
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