Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 47.96%. A win for Fleetwood Town had a probability of 26.35% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.28%) and 0-2 (8.79%). The likeliest Fleetwood Town win was 1-0 (8.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.21%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood.

Result
Fleetwood Town	Draw	Derby County
26.35% ( 0.12)	25.69% ( 0.48)	47.96% ( -0.6)

Both teams to score 50.94% (

-1.37)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.53% (

-1.85)

52.46% (

1.85)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.86% (

-1.61)

74.14% (

1.61)

Fleetwood Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.21% (

-0.89)

34.79% (

0.89)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.48% (

-0.96)

71.52% (

0.96)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.11% (

-1.02)

21.88% (

1.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.86% (

-1.57)

55.14% (

1.57)

Score Analysis

Fleetwood Town 26.35%

Derby County 47.95%

Draw 25.69%

Fleetwood Town	Draw	Derby County
1-0 @ 8.04% ( 0.39) 2-1 @ 6.45% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 4.24% ( 0.11) 3-1 @ 2.27% ( -0.07) 3-2 @ 1.72% ( -0.11) 3-0 @ 1.49% ( 0) Other @ 2.13% Total : 26.35%	1-1 @ 12.21% ( 0.22) 0-0 @ 7.61% ( 0.54) 2-2 @ 4.9% ( -0.18) Other @ 0.97% Total : 25.69%	0-1 @ 11.56% ( 0.48) 1-2 @ 9.28% ( -0.12) 0-2 @ 8.79% ( 0.1) 1-3 @ 4.7% ( -0.21) 0-3 @ 4.45% ( -0.09) 2-3 @ 2.48% ( -0.17) 1-4 @ 1.79% ( -0.14) 0-4 @ 1.69% ( -0.09) 2-4 @ 0.94% ( -0.1) Other @ 2.28% Total : 47.95%