Northampton may be 14 points better off than their opponents, but the momentum is with Port Vale following consecutive victories without conceding.
With the Valiants closing in on safety, we think that they will continue their recent form by claiming an away win over a Northampton side that has lost three of their last four games.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Northampton Town win with a probability of 39.2%. A win for Port Vale had a probability of 34.18% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Northampton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.42%) and 2-0 (6.88%). The likeliest Port Vale win was 0-1 (9.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.65%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Northampton Town would win this match.
0.05) 
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