Oxford have already beaten Peterborough at the Kassam Stadium this month, and while we do not think that the score will be as wide as the recent 5-0 scoreline, we believe that the U's will make use of home advantage to record a narrow victory.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Peterborough United win with a probability of 39.39%. A win for Oxford United had a probability of 36.79% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Peterborough United win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.09%) and 0-2 (5.61%). The likeliest Oxford United win was 2-1 (8.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.79%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Oxford United would win this match.
-0.26) 
0.06) 
