Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 55.15%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Shrewsbury Town had a probability of 20.44%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.6%) and 1-2 (9.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.56%), while for a Shrewsbury Town win it was 1-0 (6.97%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7% likelihood.
0.07) 
-0.08) 
