Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crewe Alexandra win with a probability of 46.09%. A win for Morecambe had a probability of 29.7% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Crewe Alexandra win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.86%) and 2-0 (7.3%). The likeliest Morecambe win was 1-2 (7.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.3%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood.
-0.05) 
0.06) 
