Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Grimsby Town win with a probability of 46.15%. A win for Morecambe had a probability of 28.29% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Grimsby Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.21%) and 2-0 (8.16%). The likeliest Morecambe win was 0-1 (8.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.15%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Grimsby Town would win this match.
-0.42) 
0.14) 
