SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 41.49%. A win for Manchester City had a probability of 35.32% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.62%) and 2-0 (5.61%). The likeliest Manchester City win was 1-2 (7.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.24%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Arsenal | Draw | Manchester City |
41.49% ( 2.3) | 23.19% ( 0.65) | 35.32% ( -2.94) |
| Both teams to score 64.28% ( -2.91) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.9% ( -3.64) | 37.1% ( 3.64) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.7% ( -4.04) | 59.3% ( 4.05) |
| Arsenal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.63% ( -0.55) | 18.37% ( 0.55) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.5% ( -0.94) | 49.5% ( 0.94) |
| Manchester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.75% ( -3.02) | 21.25% ( 3.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.83% ( -4.91) | 54.17% ( 4.91) |
| Score Analysis |
| Arsenal | Draw | Manchester City |
| 2-1 @ 8.68% ( 0.46) 1-0 @ 6.62% ( 1.01)2-0 @ 5.61% ( 0.77)3-1 @ 4.9% ( 0.17)3-2 @ 3.8% ( -0.23)3-0 @ 3.17% ( 0.39)4-1 @ 2.08% ( 0.04)4-2 @ 1.61% ( -0.13)4-0 @ 1.34% ( 0.14)Other @ 3.71% Total : 41.49% | 1-1 @ 10.24% ( 0.7) 2-2 @ 6.72% ( -0.28)0-0 @ 3.91% ( 0.66)3-3 @ 1.96% ( -0.32)Other @ 0.36% Total : 23.18% | 1-2 @ 7.93% ( -0.18) 0-1 @ 6.05% ( 0.52)0-2 @ 4.68% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 4.1% ( -0.51)2-3 @ 3.47% ( -0.5)0-3 @ 2.42% ( -0.25)1-4 @ 1.59% ( -0.37)2-4 @ 1.34% ( -0.35)0-4 @ 0.94% ( -0.2)Other @ 2.81% Total : 35.32% |
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