Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bahia win with a probability of 38.09%. A win for Flamengo had a probability of 36.37% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bahia win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.42%) and 2-0 (6.21%). The likeliest Flamengo win was 0-1 (8.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.08%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood.
0.13) 
-0.03) 
