SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burnley win with a probability of 46.66%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 29.14% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burnley win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9%) and 2-0 (7.44%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 1-2 (7.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.31%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-3 win for Aston Villa in this match.
| Result | ||
| Burnley | Draw | Aston Villa |
46.66% ( 0.92) | 24.19% ( 0.32) | 29.14% ( -1.23) |
| Both teams to score 57.87% ( -1.87) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.65% ( -2.12) | 44.35% ( 2.12) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.28% ( -2.09) | 66.72% ( 2.09) |
| Burnley Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.85% ( -0.47) | 19.14% ( 0.47) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.21% ( -0.78) | 50.79% ( 0.77) |
| Aston Villa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.57% ( -1.89) | 28.43% ( 1.89) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.81% ( -2.44) | 64.19% ( 2.44) |
| Score Analysis |
| Burnley | Draw | Aston Villa |
| 2-1 @ 9.36% ( 0.1) 1-0 @ 9% ( 0.68)2-0 @ 7.44% ( 0.46)3-1 @ 5.16% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 4.1% ( 0.2)3-2 @ 3.24% ( -0.19)4-1 @ 2.13% ( -0.04)4-0 @ 1.69% ( 0.06)4-2 @ 1.34% ( -0.1)Other @ 3.21% Total : 46.67% | 1-1 @ 11.31% ( 0.28) 2-2 @ 5.88% ( -0.26)0-0 @ 5.44% ( 0.48)3-3 @ 1.36% ( -0.16)Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.19% | 1-2 @ 7.12% ( -0.2) 0-1 @ 6.85% ( 0.27)0-2 @ 4.3% ( -0.06)1-3 @ 2.98% ( -0.25)2-3 @ 2.47% ( -0.25)0-3 @ 1.8% ( -0.12)1-4 @ 0.94% ( -0.14)Other @ 2.68% Total : 29.14% |
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