Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crawley Town win with a probability of 50.64%. A win for Morecambe had a probability of 26.8% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Crawley Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.78%) and 2-0 (7.28%). The likeliest Morecambe win was 1-2 (6.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.17%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood.
0.4) 
-0.43) 
