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Serie A | Gameweek 19
Jan 7, 2024 at 11.30am UK
Stadio Carlo Castellani
ML

Empoli
0 - 3
AC Milan


Marin (81')
FT(HT: 0-2)
Loftus-Cheek (11'), Giroud (31' pen.), Traore (88')
Calabria (41'), Jimenez (54')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Cagliari 0-0 Empoli
Saturday, December 30 at 2pm in Serie A
Last Game: AC Milan 4-1 Cagliari
Tuesday, January 2 at 8pm in Coppa Italia

We said: Empoli 0-2 AC Milan

Everything points to a Milan win at the Castellani, where they have never been beaten in Serie A. With Empoli consistently coming up short in the final third, the Rossoneri should stride to victory and keep within striking distance of both Inter and Juve. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 51.84%. A draw had a probability of 24.3% and a win for Empoli had a probability of 23.83%.

The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.64%) and 0-2 (9.2%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.56%), while for a Empoli win it was 1-0 (6.94%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.

Result
EmpoliDrawAC Milan
23.83% (0.099 0.1) 24.33% (0.369 0.37) 51.84% (-0.476 -0.48)
Both teams to score 52.68% (-1.061 -1.06)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
51.01% (-1.456 -1.46)48.98% (1.448 1.45)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
28.92% (-1.334 -1.33)71.07% (1.326 1.33)
Empoli Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.94% (-0.71299999999999 -0.71)35.06% (0.706 0.71)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.19% (-0.753 -0.75)71.8% (0.745 0.75)
AC Milan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.12% (-0.74000000000001 -0.74)18.88% (0.733 0.73)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
49.65% (-1.243 -1.24)50.35% (1.235 1.24)
Score Analysis
    Empoli 23.83%
    AC Milan 51.84%
    Draw 24.33%
EmpoliDrawAC Milan
1-0 @ 6.94% (0.276 0.28)
2-1 @ 6.06% (-0.012 -0.01)
2-0 @ 3.64% (0.077 0.08)
3-1 @ 2.12% (-0.045 -0.04)
3-2 @ 1.77% (-0.081 -0.08)
3-0 @ 1.27% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Other @ 2.04%
Total : 23.83%
1-1 @ 11.56% (0.2 0.2)
0-0 @ 6.62% (0.385 0.39)
2-2 @ 5.05% (-0.13 -0.13)
3-3 @ 0.98% (-0.069 -0.07)
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 24.33%
0-1 @ 11.03% (0.4 0.4)
1-2 @ 9.64% (-0.06 -0.06)
0-2 @ 9.2% (0.119 0.12)
1-3 @ 5.36% (-0.162 -0.16)
0-3 @ 5.11% (-0.054 -0.05)
2-3 @ 2.81% (-0.141 -0.14)
1-4 @ 2.23% (-0.122 -0.12)
0-4 @ 2.13% (-0.073 -0.07)
2-4 @ 1.17% (-0.088 -0.09)
Other @ 3.15%
Total : 51.84%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Cagliari 0-0 Empoli
Saturday, December 30 at 2pm in Serie A
Last Game: Empoli 0-2 Lazio
Friday, December 22 at 5.30pm in Serie A
Last Game: Torino 1-0 Empoli
Saturday, December 16 at 7.45pm in Serie A
Last Game: Empoli 1-1 Lecce
Monday, December 11 at 5.30pm in Serie A
Last Game: Genoa 1-1 Empoli
Saturday, December 2 at 2pm in Serie A
Last Game: Empoli 3-4 Sassuolo
Sunday, November 26 at 2pm in Serie A
Last Game: AC Milan 4-1 Cagliari
Tuesday, January 2 at 8pm in Coppa Italia
Last Game: AC Milan 1-0 Sassuolo
Saturday, December 30 at 5pm in Serie A
Last Game: Salernitana 2-2 AC Milan
Friday, December 22 at 7.45pm in Serie A
Last Game: AC Milan 3-0 Monza
Sunday, December 17 at 11.30am in Serie A
Last Game: Newcastle 1-2 AC Milan
Wednesday, December 13 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: Atalanta 3-2 AC Milan
Saturday, December 9 at 5pm in Serie A


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
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